Written on August 30, 2021
What happened at the event intentionally called the Campus Polska Przyszłości [Campus Poland of the Future] presents us with a picture of what kind of future is planned for Poland by Messrs. Tusk, Nitras, Grodzki, Trzaskowski et consortes. And despite numerous internet commentators, who poke fun a bit at this event, talking about it being a “cabaret,” “nit-rashing” (from the Nitras surname), and “Olsen’s Gang,” I’m far from being in a joking mood about it. I suggest taking deadly seriously what was said there. And this is regardless of how this Jugendbildungslager influences the growth of support for the Law and Justice [PiS] Party.
During this event, the political milieu’s program was announced, represented by the gentlemen mentioned above. What are the features of this program?
The most crucial point is to whom it was addressed. This program is addressed to a group that we can already identify precisely – those who do not find outrageous the words of
W. Frasyniuk about the soldiers of the Polish Army being described as “dogs” and “garbage.” As a poll shows, this group numbers about 34% in Poland.
I think that Campus Polska should be treated with the utmost attention. Firstly, because – in my opinion – this festival of hatred should be firmly positioned within a broad spectrum of actions being taken against Poland in the disinformation war which is going on right now. Secondly, because this event has its context – we are simultaneously dealing with actions of Belarusian and, most probably, Russian secret services on the Polish-Belarusian border. Thirdly, because in a few days, the “Zapad 21” maneuvers will start – it seems that they will prove to be the largest so far conducted by Russia and Belarus. In addition, there is information that, most likely, the Russian army will stay positioned near the Polish border after the maneuvers are over – we already know about the deployment of SAM 300 launchers in Grodno.
This three-element context makes us wonder what kind of scenario was prepared for Poland. In what actions are the organizers of Campus Polska taking part in with money coming from German foundations?
A bullhorn for followers
As in any operation to destabilize the enemy, one must first (if possible) gain followers in the country under attack to weaken it and reduce the costs of aggression. In the Third Reich, the SS-Hauptamt Volksdeutsche Mittelstelle (VoMi) [Main Office for Volksdeutsche Affairs – let’s call it thus) served this purpose. The name is somewhat misleading, but it was an office that planned and carried out influence operations in countries that fell victim to German aggression. They recruited and supported Nazi militias in Austria before the Anschluss, organized Heinlein agitation actions in Czechoslovakia, and finally expanded the German Vth column in Poland by carrying out measures of fear-mongering, undermining the authority of the state, prepared border provocations and propaganda concerning the Gliwice provocation. Incidentally, the head of the SS-VoMi was SS-Obergruppenführer Werner Lorenz, who later became the father-in-law of Axel Springer, the founder of an otherwise well-known publishing house in Germany.
In the situation in which Poland now finds itself, when, as I mentioned, 1/3 of the society is hostile towards the Polish State and the Polish Army, obviously the enemy needs a platform for communication with these circles and, last but not least, establishing personal relations to identify leaders, local activists. At the same time, it is about providing a signal to rally around the ideas that are to bind this milieu together in anticipation of more direct active action. That’s why we shouldn’t be surprised that during Campus Polska, some surprising, radical statements were made, which (allegedly) take away voters’ votes and, in reality, increase the support of the Law and Justice Party. It is essential to realize that these announcements are not made to compete in democratic elections. This is about hardening the permanent supporters and putting them in a state of readiness for action.
The Eastern Context
There is a buildup of Russian and Belarusian troops on Poland’s eastern and northern borders, and the “Zapad 21” maneuvers are scheduled to begin in a few days. In the RDI [Polish League Against Defamation] study Chcesz pokoju – szykuj się do wojny. Hipotetyczna wojna w krajach bałtyckich i Polsce – analiza potencjałów i scenariusz jej przebiegu w kontekście trwającej agresji dezinformacyjnej przeciwko Polsce. [You Want Peace – Get Ready for War. The hypothetical war in the Baltic States and Poland – an analysis of potentials and scenario of its course in the context of the ongoing disinformation aggression campaign against Poland], was published by the Reduta Dobrego Imienia (RDI) in the beginning of July of this year. There we wrote that one of the elements of aggression against Poland and the Baltic States may be provoking border incidents. At the same time this kind of situation can be used for political change in Poland:
(…) for the picture of the outlined threats to be complete, one should also consider the possible scenario of the development of events in the context of a change in the attitude of the new U.S. administration towards Poland and a clear shift in the vector of relations towards Germany. Of course, Germany’s reluctant attitude towards the current government and the political and social changes carried out in Poland since 2015 is well known. Is it not possible, then, to withhold aid to Poland at the moment of the appearance of “green men” in the Suwałki Gap (rather than full-scale aggression) to cause a political breakdown in the country under the influence of the fear of a part of society susceptible to the “propaganda of fear”? A possible consequence would be the fall of the PiS government and a return to the status quo ante (…)
After two months from the publication of this report, we see – in my opinion – that this scenario is coming true. I will try to outline a hypothetical further development of events. I hope that both God and state institutions will not allow for it to materialize.
The situation on the country’s border, presented in the television station TVN as a ‘humanitarian crisis,’ the actions of such figures as Mr. Sterczewski or the attack on the border fortifications in which Mr. Kramek participated, are supposed to provoke the indignation of this ’34 percent’ group against the ‘heartless actions of the Law and Justice Party,’ its alleged ‘lack of humanitarianism,’ etc. Such moral agitation is needed until the next stage, when during the Russian-Belarusian exercises there will occur (perhaps with the participation of saboteurs like those who destroyed the border entanglements) an armed incident which will provoke a short-lived military operation on the part of the “ZBiR” [Polish acronym for Union State of Russia and Belarus], in the area of the Suwałki Gap, so short, that the procedures of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty will not have time to be implemented. This, in turn, will cause panic in Poland fueled by the anti-state media and street actions undertaken by Poland’s “total opposition” and the creation of a wave of fake news (for example, about civilian casualties caused by “government negligence”). Russian disinformation centers will reinforce all this. These circumstances will be conducive to the said “total opposition’s” actions to deprive PiS of its support. Since some MPs from the unstable majority may also succumb to panic, it may turn out that there will be a governmental crisis due to accusations coming from all sides about “provoking a war with Russia.” As a result, the rule of the patriotic circles in Poland may end, and the repressions announced by Messrs. Budka, Trzaskowski, Kramek, Nitras et al, against the supporters of the Law and Justice Party, genuinely independent media, the Catholics, and the Church – will begin.
The “unprocessed” war trauma
Why is this scenario perhaps becoming a reality?
Already several years ago in my programmatic text “Obronić prawdę” [To Defend the Truth] in the pages of Reduta Online (see: https://www.anti-defamation.pl/redutanews/obronic-prawde) I wrote about the “unprocessed” war trauma of Poles as the main factor of stirring up unrest in the country and using it as a political tool:
Poland, within its postwar borders, with a postwar population, and conditioned for 45 years by Soviet “do-gooders,” emerged as a battered nation from the trauma of communism. The impulse provided by Solidarity – an unusual social phenomenon on a mass scale, after all, which appealed to the best in man – was largely wasted. The political transformation based on the false paradigm of liberalism kept the post-war Poles in mental humiliation, also resulting from the disastrous material conditions in which most of us lived. Only the great revolution of dignity that began after 2015 began to change this state of affairs. Despite the pedagogy of shame and the attempt to reject our own history, not only Warsaw celebrates with reverence the anniversary of August 1st and pays tribute to the Warsaw Uprising and its heroes, spontaneously, in the cemeteries and on the streets. And these are not martyrological regrets, but constitute a testimony of a continuity of gut feelings by Poles, also by the young generation, of what Poland and Polishness are all about. We are all part of the procession of generations for whom the Homeland is a precious gift to be passed on to their successors.
The weaknesses of today’s Polish society are above all – apart from low social capital – excessive excitability resulting from authentic national trauma, from PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder), which is experienced by the majority. And from this comes the fact that it is almost effortless to arouse negative emotions in Poles and direct them against the “enemies,” that it is easy to experience disappointment, a sense of injustice, a conviction that the indifferent world does us wrong, does not appreciate us, does not understand us, insults us. Russians seem to understand us better than we do ourselves, and in this way, they play on Poles like a puppet on a string. That’s why such an easy political method in contemporary Poland are smear and hate campaigns and “character assassination” – a whole range of активные мероприятия, or Active Measures. All it takes is one tweet, and collective trauma does the rest.
A nation with PTSD, the point at which Poles are now, is afraid of war. This is an unconscious fear, but it is present all the time, strengthened by the centers of hostile disinformation and by politicians such as Tusk, who once said before the elections to the European Parliament that “these elections are about children being able to go to school on September 1” – in other words, implying that if his political option loses the elections, there will be war. Generating fear was the main activity of the propagandists of the Platform Obywatelska Party [Citizens’ Platform]. It was carried out so professionally that it caused fear that allayed social activity after the Smolensk tragedy. The same methods of propaganda of fear are being used now. Therefore, the scenario presented above is possible to be realized by Poland’s enemies.
Nitras’s statement from August 29, 2021, after all – a member of Parliament – about “sawing off the Catholics” is a kind of ultimatum for Polish patriots, not only for Catholics. And as usual: there are no coincidences, only signs. Those who know history know it: on August 29, 1939, Ribbentrop presented Poland with the final ultimatum.
Poland is facing a critical moment. Either its citizens faithful to the Republic of Poland and the Republic of Poland itself will oppose the internal and external aggression with all their might, or Poland will fall back into being a state of ‘dependent development,’ exploited by a stronger neighbor, paying its gas tribute to Russia, de facto losing its sovereignty, and trampled into the mud of political correctness by the boots of the degenerated media. Tertium non datur. [There is no third option].
August 30, 2021